Aytaç Paçal

Aytaç Paçal

PhD Candidate

Talks and presentations

Detecting Extreme Temperature Events Using Gaussian Mixture Models

April 24, 2023

Oral presentation, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria

Extreme events are rare atmospheric phenomena that cause significant damage to humans and natural systems, but detecting extreme events in the future in a changing climate can be challenging. Traditionally, temperature distributions were assumed to follow a normal distribution and certain thresholds were used to define extreme events. However, the mean and the variance of temperatures are expected to change in a future climate, which might limit the application of traditional methods for detecting extreme events.

Determination of Exposures of Mediterranean Touristic Resources by Using Regional Climate Modeling

April 10, 2019

Poster presentation, EGU General Assembly 2019, Vienna, Austria

Summer tourism in the Mediterranean Basin is one of the most important contributors to the countries’ GDPs, and is highly dependent on the climatic conditions. In this study, it is aimed to determine the exposures of the most visited touristic resources in the Mediterranean Basin via Tourism Climate Index [1] which is an ideal indicator of tourism exposure to the hazard of changes to the mean climate [2]. For this purpose, the outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology are downscaled to 50km by the use of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4. 4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP). To make future projections for the period of 2021-2050 and 2070-2099 with respect to the reference period of 1971-2000, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are used. Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for projected periods are computed by using the 30-year monthly mean temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind and sunshine outputs of the RegCM4. 4. Thereafter, the TCI values are plotted to see the changes throughout the months.